SEIR Epidemic with Exposed Compartment L1-406
Unclaimed Principle — open for contribution
This Principle is declared in the catalog but has no reference solver, no pinned dataset, and is not registered on-chain. There is no reward pool. Submitting a cert against this Principle today will record the cert for reproducibility but pay zero PWM.
To claim it as a Bounty #7 contribution: open a PR adding (1) a reference solver, (2) ≥1 dataset pinned to IPFS, (3) updates to the L3 manifest with dataset CIDs. After verifier-agent triple-review, the founders' 3-of-5 multisig signs PWMRegistry.register() and the Principle becomes mineable.
Forward model E
SEIR Epidemic with Exposed Compartment: SEIR model: adds exposed/latent compartment E accounting for incubation period before infectiousness. The forward operator produces the measurement through a 3-node primitive DAG (M.ode.seir_model…); recovery is posed as a parameter_estimation problem. Difficulty tier delta=3 with effective condition number kappa_eff~80; age_structure_neglect, spatial_heterogeneity set the accuracy floor at the Omega boundary. See the forward_model field for the closed-form equation.
L-DAG
Well-posedness W
- Existence:
- true
- Uniqueness:
- true
- Stability:
- conditional
- κ:
- 2000
Existence of the recovered SEIR_parameter_vector is guaranteed within the declared Omega bounds. Uniqueness holds on the measurement-supported subspace; out-of-support modes are controlled by declared priors. Stability is conditionally stable (kappa_eff ~= 80); age_structure_neglect dominates the stability cliff; the remaining mismatch parameters contribute higher-order bias terms. Negative binomial sets the irreducible data-fidelity floor.
Solvability C
- Solver class:
- statistical [MCMC_SEIR or particle_filter_sequential]
- Convergence rate q:
- 2
- Complexity:
- O(N_days * N_MCMC) per fit per iteration